Copa Libertadores (South America) · Fri, Oct 16 · 00:30 · Estudiantes de La Plata vs Flamengo
Likeliest: Flamengo win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de La Plata24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Flamengo43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de La Plata
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 5 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)3-0
- Oct 2 · at Platense (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · at Lanús (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Corinthians (A)1-0
Flamengo
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Fluminense (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · v Independiente del Valle (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Corinthians (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de La Plata | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.