Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · Estudiantes de La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de La Plata42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+2
OursMarket
San Lorenzo24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de La Plata
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · v Flamengo (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-2
- Oct 5 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)3-0
- Oct 2 · at Platense (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · at Lanús (A)1-2
San Lorenzo
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Boca Juniors (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at CA Independiente (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Talleres (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de La Plata | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.