Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve vs CA Independiente Reserve
Likeliest: CA Independiente Reserve win · 49%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve22%26%−5
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+2
OursMarket
CA Independiente Reserve49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · at Atletico Rafaela Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · v Platense Reserve (H)2-2
- Sep 30 · at Quilmes Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 24 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (H)1-0
CA Independiente Reserve
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 13 · v Huracán Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 7 · at Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (A)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 24 · at Racing Reserve (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Colón Reserve (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve | CA Independiente Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.