Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto vs Aldosivi
Likeliest: draw · 35%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the draw. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Aldosivi33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at River Plate (A)0-1
- Oct 5 · v Racing Club (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Belgrano (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Sarmiento (H)0-2
Aldosivi
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Sarmiento (H)1-3
- Oct 4 · at Huracán (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)3-4
- Sep 5 · v Banfield (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | Aldosivi |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.