NB I (Hungary) · Thu, Sep 3 · 17:30 · ETO FC Győr vs Ferencváros TC
Likeliest: Ferencváros TC win · 39%
A 38% home win. The market says 24%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ETO FC Győr38%24%+14
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Ferencváros TC39%52%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 61% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 48% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 76% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 32% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ETO FC Győr
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Aug 30 · at Kisvárda FC (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · at Debreceni VSC (A)1-1
- Aug 13 · v Riga FC (H)1-1
- Aug 6 · at Riga FC (A)0-1
Ferencváros TC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · at Puskás Akadémia (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Trabzonspor (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Trabzonspor (A)1-0
- Aug 17 · at Zalaegerszegi TE (A)1-0
- Aug 13 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | ETO FC Győr | Ferencváros TC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 5-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.