NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · ETO FC Győr vs Újpest
Likeliest: ETO FC Győr win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ETO FC Győr40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Újpest35%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ETO FC Győr
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Paksi FC (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at MTK Budapest (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Karcagi SC (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Budapest Honvéd FC (H)3-2
Újpest
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Zalaegerszegi TE (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Dorogi FC (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Ferencváros TC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | ETO FC Győr | Újpest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.