Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:30 · Everton de Viña del Mar vs Deportes La Serena
Likeliest: Everton de Viña del Mar win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton de Viña del Mar52%54%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Deportes La Serena22%22%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton de Viña del Mar
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Ñublense (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Universidad Católica (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-0
- Aug 24 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)3-1
- Aug 16 · v Audax Italiano (H)1-1
Deportes La Serena
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Universidad de Chile (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Ñublense (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Unión La Calera (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cobresal (H)3-3
- Aug 14 · at Universidad de Concepción (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Everton de Viña del Mar | Deportes La Serena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.