Premier League (England) · Tue, Feb 10 · 19:30 · Everton vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Everton win · 47%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton47%39%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth30%33%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 52% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 54% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Feb 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Feb 7 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Jan 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · at Newcastle United (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Everton | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.