Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 20:00 · Everton vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 49%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton24%16%+9
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
Arsenal49%60%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 40% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 84% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 20% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Newcastle United (H)1-4
- Nov 24 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
Arsenal
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Dec 13 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Club Brugge (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Chelsea (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Everton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.