Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · Everton vs Birmingham City W.F.C.
Likeliest: Everton win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham City W.F.C.24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossWinWinLoss
- Sep 27 · at Liverpool FC (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Charlton Athletic WFC (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
Birmingham City W.F.C.
LossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 27 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at Chelsea FC (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Manchester City (A)1-3