Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Everton vs Brentford
Likeliest: Everton win · 45%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton45%39%+7
OursMarket
Draw27%30%−3
OursMarket
Brentford28%31%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 55% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Dec 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Dec 27 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-0
Brentford
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Dec 27 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-1
- Dec 20 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Dec 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
- Dec 14 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Everton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.