Premier League (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:30 · Everton vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 41%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton35%29%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Chelsea41%43%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 71% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 41% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
- Feb 23 · v Manchester United (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
Chelsea
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 17 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-3
- Mar 14 · v Newcastle United (H)0-1
- Mar 11 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-5
- Mar 4 · at Aston Villa (A)4-1
- Mar 1 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.