Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:30 · Everton vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton27%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Chelsea46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Hull City (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
Chelsea
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Bournemouth (H)5-1
- Sep 18 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Sep 12 · v Hull City (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Leeds United (H)6-3
- Sep 6 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.