Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Everton vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Everton win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Crystal Palace31%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- May 24 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Sunderland (H)1-3
- May 10 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-2
- May 4 · v Manchester City (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
Crystal Palace
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- May 27 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- May 13 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Everton (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.