Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Everton vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Everton win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Ipswich Town20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · at Preston North End (A)4-0
Ipswich Town
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Manchester United (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Everton | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.