Premier League (England) · Sun, Apr 19 · 13:00 · Everton vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Everton win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 30%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton52%30%+22
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Liverpool24%42%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 58% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 70% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 41% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Mar 14 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
Liverpool
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 14 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-2
- Apr 13 · at Peñarol (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Apr 8 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Everton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.