Premier League (England) · Mon, May 4 · 19:00 · Everton vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 51%
A 23% home win. The market says 15%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton23%15%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%21%+5
OursMarket
Manchester City51%64%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 36% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 85% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 19% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Mar 14 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
Manchester City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · at Burnley (A)1-0
- Apr 19 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Chelsea (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Liverpool (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Everton | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.