Premier League (England) · Mon, Feb 23 · 20:00 · Everton vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Everton win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 25%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton41%25%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Manchester United35%49%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 51% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 75% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 34% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Feb 10 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
Manchester United
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Feb 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Fulham (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Arsenal (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · v Manchester City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Everton | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.