Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Everton vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Everton win · 60%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton60%29%+31
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Manchester United19%45%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 56% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 55% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 71% | −31 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 39% | +37 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 29 · at Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · at Preston North End (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Sunderland (H)1-3
Manchester United
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-2
- Aug 22 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- May 24 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)3-0
- May 17 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-2
- May 9 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Everton | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.