Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 17:30 · Everton vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 36%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton29%35%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Newcastle United46%36%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 64% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 49% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Nov 24 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Nov 3 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
- Oct 26 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-3
- Oct 18 · at Manchester City (A)0-2
Newcastle United
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 25 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · v Manchester City (H)2-1
- Nov 9 · at Brentford (A)1-3
- Nov 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Everton | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.