Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Everton vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Everton win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 44%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton52%44%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest24%27%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 62% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Dec 2 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Nov 29 · v Newcastle United (H)1-4
- Nov 24 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Nov 3 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
Nottingham Forest
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Nov 27 · v Malmö FF (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Nov 9 · v Leeds United (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Everton | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.