Premier League (England) · Sun, May 17 · 14:00 · Everton vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Everton win · 45%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton45%52%−6
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Sunderland27%23%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 50% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 53% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 70% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- May 10 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-2
- May 4 · v Manchester City (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Brentford (A)2-2
Sunderland
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- May 9 · v Manchester United (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-5
- Apr 19 · at Aston Villa (A)3-4
- Apr 12 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Everton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.