EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Sep 16 · 18:45 · Everton vs Wolverhampton
Likeliest: Everton win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
Wolverhampton16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · at Preston North End (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
Wolverhampton
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Sheffield United (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 1 · at West Ham United (A)2-4
- Aug 29 · v Stoke City (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Everton | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.