Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Everton win · 51%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Everton51%53%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers24%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Everton
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Jan 4 · v Brentford (H)2-4
- Dec 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Dec 27 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Jan 3 · v West Ham United (H)3-0
- Dec 30 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Brentford (H)0-2
- Dec 13 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Everton | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Everton form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record