Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Dec 5 · 19:00 · Excelsior vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 53%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior53%28%+25
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Groningen26%46%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 54% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 54% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 72% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 38% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Nov 29 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-2
- Nov 1 · at Telstar (A)2-2
- Oct 26 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-2
FC Groningen
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- Nov 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-2
- Nov 2 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Oct 30 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.