Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 26 · 10:15 · Excelsior vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Utrecht win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 43%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%27%0
OursMarket
FC Utrecht48%43%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 41% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 12 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · at Feyenoord (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-2
FC Utrecht
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Apr 11 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Mar 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at FC Twente (A)2-0
- Mar 6 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.