Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 13 · 10:15 · Excelsior vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior42%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Utrecht32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-0
FC Utrecht
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-6
- Aug 22 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-3
- Aug 15 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-4
- Aug 9 · at FC Groningen (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.