Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Excelsior vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 46%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior46%54%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
FC Volendam28%23%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 60% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 77% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 46% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 70% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- May 2 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Apr 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Apr 12 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
FC Volendam
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 3 · v SC Heerenveen (H)0-2
- Apr 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Apr 5 · v Feyenoord (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.