Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 4 · 19:00 · Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 43%
A 33% home win. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior33%27%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen43%49%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 36% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · at Feyenoord (A)1-2
- Mar 7 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-2
NEC Nijmegen
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 22 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Mar 8 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v PSV (H)3-2
- Feb 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.