Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Dec 20 · 17:45 · Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 50%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior50%44%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−4
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 60% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 5 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Nov 29 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-2
- Nov 1 · at Telstar (A)2-2
PEC Zwolle
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Dec 13 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · at Feyenoord (A)1-6
- Dec 3 · v AZ (H)1-3
- Nov 28 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at FC Groningen (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.