Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 7 · 20:00 · Excelsior vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 34%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior42%34%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen34%41%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Mar 1 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v AZ (H)1-2
- Feb 6 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Ajax (H)2-2
SC Heerenveen
LossWinWinLossWin
- Feb 28 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at PSV (A)1-3
- Feb 15 · v PEC Zwolle (H)4-2
- Feb 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)3-1
- Feb 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.