Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:30 · Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 61%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 61%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior61%40%+21
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Sparta Rotterdam19%34%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 66% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 60% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 54% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-0
- May 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-2
- May 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-1
- May 2 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
Sparta Rotterdam
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · v FC Utrecht (H)3-3
- Aug 14 · at SC Telstar (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
- May 17 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- May 10 · at FC Twente (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.