Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Jan 17 · 19:00 · Excelsior vs Telstar
Likeliest: Excelsior win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Excelsior50%43%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Telstar28%31%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Excelsior
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jan 10 · at PSV (A)1-5
- Dec 20 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-1
- Dec 5 · v FC Groningen (H)0-2
- Nov 29 · v NAC Breda (H)1-0
- Nov 22 · at Ajax (A)2-1
Telstar
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Jan 14 · at Almere City (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Ajax (H)2-3
- Dec 20 · at NAC Breda (A)1-0
- Dec 16 · at HSV Hoek (A)4-1
- Dec 13 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Excelsior | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.