League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra
Likeliest: Exeter City win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Exeter City36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Crewe Alexandra35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Exeter City
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Colchester United (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Rotherham United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Bristol Rovers (A)0-1
Crewe Alexandra
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Rochdale (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Swindon Town (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Exeter City | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.