Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Exeter City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Oxford United win · 53%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Exeter City23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Oxford United53%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Exeter City
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Rotherham United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Bristol Rovers (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
Oxford United
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Cambridge United (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Leicester City (A)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Huddersfield Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Stevenage (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Exeter City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.