Super Lig (Turkey) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00 · Eyüpspor vs Göztepe
Likeliest: Göztepe win · 51%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eyüpspor22%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Göztepe51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eyüpspor
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Fenerbahçe (A)0-8
- Sep 12 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Çorum FK (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Alanyaspor (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Gaziantep FK (H)0-1
Göztepe
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Alanyaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Gaziantep FK (H)2-4
- Aug 29 · at Galatasaray (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Eyüpspor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.