Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:30 · Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa
Likeliest: Kasımpaşa win · 65%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Eyüpspor11%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Kasımpaşa65%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Eyüpspor
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)0-2
- Oct 12 · v Göztepe (H)0-4
- Sep 20 · at Fenerbahçe (A)0-8
- Sep 12 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Çorum FK (A)0-3
Kasımpaşa
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Samsunspor (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · at Galatasaray (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · v Konyaspor (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Eyüpspor | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.