Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Oct 7 · 10:00 · Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba
Likeliest: Fagiano Okayama win · 49%
A 28% draw. The market says 24%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fagiano Okayama49%56%−7
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+4
OursMarket
JEF United Chiba23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 74% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fagiano Okayama
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)3-2
- Sep 2 · at JEF United Chiba (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Nagoya Grampus (A)1-2
JEF United Chiba
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Fagiano Okayama | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.