J-League (Japan) · Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 · Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Fagiano Okayama win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fagiano Okayama51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kyoto Sanga FC22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fagiano Okayama
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)3-2
- Sep 2 · at JEF United Chiba (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Nagoya Grampus (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)0-0
Kyoto Sanga FC
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 15 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.