J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
Likeliest: Fagiano Okayama win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fagiano Okayama49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Mito Hollyhock23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fagiano Okayama
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-2
- Oct 7 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
Mito Hollyhock
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fagiano Okayama | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.