J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 18 · 04:55 · Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fagiano Okayama30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Vissel Kobe40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fagiano Okayama
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Avispa Fukuoka (A)1-2
- Oct 7 · v JEF United Chiba (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Urawa Red Diamonds (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)3-2
Vissel Kobe
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 14 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-4
- Sep 23 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Port FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Fagiano Okayama | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.