Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) · Mon, Oct 19 · 13:15 · Fajr Sepasi FC vs Paykan
Likeliest: Paykan win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fajr Sepasi FC34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Paykan35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 40% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fajr Sepasi FC
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Aluminium Arak (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Sepahan S.C. (A)1-6
- Sep 7 · at Foolad Khuzestan (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v Mes Shahr Babak (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Zob Ahan (H)0-0
Paykan
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Shams Azar Qazvin (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · at Esteghlal FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Sanat Naft Abadan (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Zob Ahan (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Esteghlal Khuzestan (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fajr Sepasi FC | Paykan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.