Superettan (Sweden) · Fri, Sep 18 · 17:00 · Falkenbergs FF vs Östersunds FK
Likeliest: Falkenbergs FF win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Falkenbergs FF40%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Östersunds FK33%32%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Falkenbergs FF
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at Ljungskile SK (A)2-0
- Sep 10 · v Östers IF (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at IK Oddevold (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v IK Brage (H)4-1
- Aug 24 · at Norrköping (A)1-2
Östersunds FK
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 14 · v Helsingborg (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · v IK Brage (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Örebro (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Landskrona (A)1-1
- Aug 24 · v Ljungskile SK (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Falkenbergs FF | Östersunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-1 | 3-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.