Premiership (Scotland) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:45 · Falkirk FC vs Hearts
Likeliest: Hearts win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Falkirk FC24%27%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Hearts48%47%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Falkirk FC
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Dundee United (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Rangers (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Celtic (A)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Motherwell (A)0-0
- Aug 1 · v St. Mirren (H)0-2
Hearts
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · v Dundee FC (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Hibernian (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v St. Johnstone (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Falkirk FC | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.