Premiership (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Falkirk FC vs Kilmarnock
Likeliest: Falkirk FC win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Falkirk FC52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Kilmarnock23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Falkirk FC
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Hibernian (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Dundee FC (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at St. Johnstone (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Hearts (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Dundee United (A)1-1
Kilmarnock
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Motherwell (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Rangers (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Hearts (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Hibernian (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Aberdeen (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Falkirk FC | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-7 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.