3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Fana vs Fyllingsdalen
Likeliest: Fana win · 92%
Likely score: 5–0
A 92% home win. The market says 88%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fana92%88%+4
OursMarket
Draw4%8%−3
OursMarket
Fyllingsdalen3%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 8% | 12% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 96% | 92% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 5.2 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fana
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Askøy FK (A)3-0
- Oct 5 · v Asane Fotball 2 (H)5-2
- Sep 26 · at Vard Haugesund (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Førde (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Os TF (H)3-2
Fyllingsdalen
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Os TF (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Førde (A)2-6
- Sep 26 · v Stord (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · at SK Brann II (A)0-7
- Sep 12 · v Gneist (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Fana | Fyllingsdalen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 0-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.