National League South (England Amateur) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United
Likeliest: Ebbsfleet United win · 62%
Likely scores: 1–2 11% · 1–1 10% · 0–2 9%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the away win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Farnborough16%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Ebbsfleet United62%59%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Farnborough
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 31 · v Horsham (H)0-5
- Oct 28 · v Weston Super Mare (H)2-1
- Oct 24 · at Folkestone Invicta (A)0-2
- Oct 17 · v Dagenham & Redbridge (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Billericay Town FC (A)0-4
Ebbsfleet United
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 31 · at Truro City (A)0-3
- Oct 27 · at Maidstone United (A)3-1
- Oct 24 · v Maidenhead United (H)0-0
- Oct 20 · v Horsham (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · v Weston Super Mare (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Farnborough | Ebbsfleet United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.