Botola Pro (Morocco) · Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 · Fath Union Sport vs Raja Club Athletic
Likeliest: Raja Club Athletic win · 60%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fath Union Sport15%19%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Raja Club Athletic60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fath Union Sport
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 9 · at Moghreb Atlético Tetuán (A)0-0
- Oct 2 · v Union Sportive Amal Tiznit (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Union Touarga Sport (A)1-2
- Jul 5 · v Union Sportive Yacoub El Mansour (H)0-1
- Jul 2 · at Renaissance Zemamra (A)1-1
Raja Club Athletic
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 8 · at MAS de Fès (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Renaissance Zemamra (H)1-0
- Jul 5 · at Olympic Safi (A)2-0
- Jul 2 · v Hassania d'Agadir (H)2-0
- Jun 28 · at Ittihad Tanger (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Fath Union Sport | Raja Club Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-3 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.