Challenge League (Switzerland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge FC
Likeliest: FC Aarau win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Aarau58%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Étoile Carouge FC21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Aarau
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v FC Zürich (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at Stade Nyonnais (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at FC Winterthur (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SC Kriens (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)3-2
Étoile Carouge FC
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (A)0-3
- Oct 9 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at SC Kriens (A)1-4
- Sep 11 · v FC Winterthur (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Aarau | Étoile Carouge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.