Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:15 · FC Aarau vs Neuchâtel Xamax
Likeliest: FC Aarau win · 42%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Aarau42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Neuchâtel Xamax32%27%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 66% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 64% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 64% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Aarau
LossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-2
- Aug 7 · v Stade Nyonnais (H)2-1
- Aug 1 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)0-3
Neuchâtel Xamax
WinWinWinLoss
- Aug 21 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
- Jul 31 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)2-1
- Jul 24 · v SC Kriens (H)3-2